The Rate Cut Everyone Waited For Isn't Coming This Year
The RBA hands down its next cash rate decision on Tuesday 11 August, and the conversation around it has quietly flipped. Twelve months ago the debate was how many cuts we'd see in 2026. Right now markets are pricing roughly a 97% chance of no change at all, no major forecaster has a cut on the table for August, and CBA, NAB and ANZ have pushed their first cut out to mid-to-late 2027. Westpac is the outlier — and it's calling a rise, not a fall.
Here's the part that matters locally: Adelaide has been climbing the whole time anyway. The median Adelaide house hit a record $1,125,070 in the June quarter — a 4.8% quarterly gain, the largest of any capital city — while combined capital city house prices actually fell 1.4% over the same period. Adelaide has now overtaken Melbourne as Australia's fourth most expensive capital for houses. All of that happened with the cash rate sitting at 4.35% and not a single cut in sight.
If your plan has been “wait until rates come down, then move” — that plan just lost its timetable. And the irony is that conditions on the ground are the friendliest they've been in years: total listings are up 17.8% on this time last year, auction clearance rates have eased to around 44–45%, and homes are still turning over in a median 28 days against a national 32. More choice, less heat at auction, but good homes still moving. That's a better buying and selling environment than a rate cut headline would ever give you — and it's available now, not in 2027.
🏡 Buyers — Get your borrowing capacity re-checked at today's rate rather than a hoped-for one. With more stock on the board and softer clearance rates, you have genuine negotiating room right now.
💰 Sellers — Waiting for cuts to lift buyer budgets no longer has a date attached to it. Adelaide houses are at a record now, and an August campaign competes with far fewer listings than a September one.
📈 Investors — Vacancy is holding near 0.7% with rents up about 4.8% over the year. Higher-for-longer rates keep would-be buyers renting, which keeps that demand tight — but stress-test your numbers at a higher rate, not a lower one.
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